The parameters used to define i . to establish colors of regions is likely to be reviewed as early as this week. The reason is quite simple: the growing spread of Delta variant all over the national territory it is causing a wave of infections. According to yesterday’s July 18 monitoring bulletin, 3,127 new cases have been reached in 24 hours. Far more than the 300-400 registered at the end of June. A boom that, little by little, is clearly pushing the Regions into the yellow zone. To re-enter the risk range envisaged by the first limitations, the incidence of Sars-Cov2 in the population is currently most considered. That is the number of cases registered in an area per 100 thousand inhabitants. The reference value today is 50. As soon as this threshold is exceeded, new limits are therefore automatically activated.
Yellow regions, the risk areas
A horizon that with the virus which has now reached a positivity rate of 1.9% (data from July 18) and especially a stable Rt of 0.91 (data from the weekly monitoring Iss of July 16) is far from far. Suffice it to say that 5 regions are already considered risky. We start from the islands: Sardinia and Sicily have a fairly high incidence (33.2 and 31.8 respectively), but the data from Veneto (26.7), Lazio (24) and Campania (21.7) are also worrying .
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Of course, the last word is not said – over the days the incidence of these areas could decrease rather than increase – but while maintaining the current pace, these areas are already at risk of being moved into yellow from next Monday July 26th 26. In addition, to testify to the difficulty of the current situation, the latest ISS monitoring found that “almost all regions and autonomous provinces are classified with a moderate epidemic risk”. At this low-risk moment, only the Autonomous Province of Trento and Valle d’Aosta are resisting.
However, the fate of the 5 regions with the highest incidence data is not yet sealed. As already requested by governors and experts and approved by the Minister of Health Roberto Speranza, in fact i gradient parameters they must be reviewed for the next control room for the evaluation of the weekly data.
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Therefore, in the coming days, it must be decided to give less importance for the so-called report cards to the incidence rate (which in fact gives the areas with more than 50 cases per 100 thousand inhabitants yellow) in favor of hospitalizations . That is the employment rate of Covid patients from beds in the medical room and in intensive care. A parameter that currently exists with the thresholds considered critical is 30% and 40%, respectively. Now, however, the data will become more relevant and somehow (it’s not defined as yet) staggered to define the transition in yellow, orange, or red. This is good news, because despite the increase in ongoing infections, hospital admissions in Italy are still definitely under control. The massive vaccination campaign (which, however, is now practically at a standstill from the point of view of the first doses) allows the immunized to drastically reduce the risk of developing a severe form of the disease, which is why intensive care units and beds in Italian hospitals are an employment rate of approximately 2%.
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But be careful, as explained by the president of the Higher Institute of Health Silvio Brusaferro, this parameter is also destined to rise, reaching 10% in August. A projection showing how, even with new rules, the emergency is far from over and the danger of the peninsula turning yellow again is far from escaping. There is a risk that after August 15, or at least within the month, some regions will pay for the boom in infections with the return of the curfew (theoretically at 10 p.m., but it would likely be extended to midnight) and the limitation of the hours of some activities.
A ghost that mainly returns to linger, because today in Italy, among the vulnerable categories, the over-80s who are fully vaccinated are 89.81%, the over-70s 77.95%, the over-60s 64.96 %. And, even more worryingly, there are more than 2.5 million citizens between the ages of 50 and 59 who have not even received the first dose of the Covid vaccine. In practice, a large proportion of those most at risk of ending up in hospital if they catch the infection choose not to protect themselves and this threatens to put everyone at a disadvantage, even the vaccinated.