The water swirls in the front of everything As the closing of the lists approaches – 13 days to go, the most important date is July 24 – and the hypotheses of the candidatures are still under discussion, but it is already a fact that some ministers they will go to the payroll to fight for seats in the deputies. In the Casa Rosada they hold the reserve, elude some opportunities and swear to it balance of power will be maintained between the three legs that make up the governing coalition. Figures from La Campora and social movements, however, seem possible.
In addition to the changes, they are also thinking of: shrink the cabinet to make it “more agile” in a “new dynamic” and to appease the questions of the hard wing of Kirchnerism about the workings of Balcarce 50. The question that flies over is about the outgoing names, and more and more, about their replacements.
“Alberto will nominate ministers as candidates. If he does, the reading they’re going to make is that it was due to internal pressure that caused him to lose officials. But if you don’t list your own people, they’ll say you didn’t have seats because you don’t have weight. There is no way to win the argument argument,” a spokesperson said. In the Government, they ensure that every official who goes to the polls is replaced by a man or woman of same internal color in front of everything.
In a week of strong social unrest triggered by new protests – which have been repeated for months – and which were countered by the government’s announcement of the advance until September of the increase in the minimum and mobile wages, one of the most plausible possibility is the candidacy of the Minister of Social Development, Daniel Arroyo. “It has been agreed between the three partners of the coalition,” 50 said in Balcarce.
In the government they praise him for his communicative qualities – precisely as a result of social problems in a context of crisis -, for his conciliatory style, and above all because he was responsible for what is considered to be good management of aid and aid negotiations with social movements. They state that their role will be key in the part of the campaign that will consist of: “Public consultation management.”
In any case, they put into perspective any changes in their closest circle, with a sentence that is already a cliché in the government: “We don’t decide.” They swear that “no one told them anything” about candidatures and emphasize that the minister has planned events, travel and negotiations “from here until the end of the year”.
The officials sounding to replace Arroyo are the chairman of the National Coordination of Social Policy, Victoria Tolosa Paz, a photo of a good arrival with both Cristina Kirchner and Alberto Fernández. Zero of the former candidate in La Plata denies it and prefers a candidacy for the province.
The Minister of Community Development of the Province of Buenos Aires is also appointed, Andrés “Cuervo” Larroque, La Campora, although in his environment they deny any definition of a candidacy. And close to the governor Axel Kicillof they assure that it is not in their plans to part with their ministers. His arrival at Government House would be a strong step for Kirchnerism in the management of Alberto Fernandez.
There is also pressure from social movements to occupy places, both on the lists and in government. Days ago, the leader of the Excluded Workers Movement (MTE), Juan Grabois, rated the government as “Very Buenos Aires, very middle class, very white, very progressive.” “It’s missing a popular part, it’s missing boxers,” the leader launched in an interview with Radio Futurock, which in recent months has improved the link with La Campora -and vice versa- mainly through negotiations on a possible “universal salary”, and left behind the friction that dragged on from last year.
Meanwhile, a man of welcome both to Alberto Fernández and to the social movements assured Movimiento Evita, the organization that leads Emilio Persico, who crossed with Arroyo for the Alimentar card also promotes the candidacy of the Secretary of Institutional Relations with Parliament, Fernando “Chino” Navarro. In their respective environments, they also deny it.
In addition to the lists, the bids for compiling lists and the cabinet are made among internal regulars. In government they lower their tone and repeat to nausea that they make sense in a government coalition. This week, conflicting looks escalated to the voice of two of the strongest men in the ruling party. The head of La Campora, Maximum Kirchner, He threw the first stone by comparing the negotiations with the IMF and the president’s amendment to the vaccine law to adapt it to the demands of US labs. “I don’t want a country that gives in to the whims of foreign labs”, He launched in his closing speech in the Chamber of Deputies, after the presentation of the Chief of Staff, Santiago Cafe, Thursday.
The next day, during his Independence Day speech in Tucumán, Alberto Fernandez seemed to answer him, without naming it. “If anyone expects me to give in to creditors or a lab, they’re wrong before I go,” he launched.
In the Casa Rosada they put the discussion into perspective while they are organizing an Alberto Fernández act with Cristina Kirchner next Thursday, in El Calafate. The summit would act as an internal signal of unity in the face of the obvious and repeating internals in the governing coalition. Although they ensure that in the Casa Rosada and La Cámpora it has not been confirmed, some preparations are already underway, official sources admit.
To appear alongside Alberto Fernández, Cristina Kirchner would move to the interior, while theories are circulating in the Patria Institute that the president’s presence will be largely “limited” to the provinces. In Balcarce 50 they make sure to deny those versions. “It will be everywhere, it will have a very strong presence”, they say. And they remember his presence in Las Flores and La Plata a few months ago. The last appearances of the vice president took place in the suburbs of Buenos Aires, his main electoral stronghold, along with his accomplice and dolphin for 2023, the governor of Buenos Aires, Axel Kicillof, and without Alberto Fernandez.
Cristina Kirchner’s favorite city was selected in October 2019 during the campaign of the newborn Frente de Todos with the excuse of presenting sincerely, the book with which the then senator traveled through the country with her look at the presidential elections that ended in a victory against Together for Change. In any case, the ruling party is cautious when comparing elections, despite surveys showing some discontent in the province, mainly due to the economic situation.
“Only in 2023 can we equate figures with 2019. Now we look at the figures for 2017”, said a spokesman for the president who participates in the ruling party’s conversion rallies. In Balcarce 50, they believe that with a single point above the opposition, the fight will be considered an achievement, despite not achieving the desired majority in Congress. “We haven’t won parliamentary elections since 2005. Even if we win by two points, we’re going to celebrate,” he emphasized.
In Kirchnerism they are more ambitious: they want to improve the possibilities of the ruling party in the legislature carry out the agenda they have been promising since 2019 and which they regard as frustrated so far. To achieve this, they promote strong spending of resources and investment in public works. The hard wing of the government blames Alberto Fernández’s management for this pending issue, but also for the pandemic and the need to permanently agree to Together for Change, a day-to-day task in which the President of the Chamber of Deputies, Sergio Massa, and the holder of the Interblock of the Front of All, Maximum Kirchner, they have a leading role. This shared role has brought them closer than ever in the past two years, following the break of the leader of the Renovador Front with Kirchnerism in 2013.
Outside the city walls, outside the Frente de Todos, the ruling party lowers the price of Florencio Randazzo, that last week he confirmed his candidacy for deputy in the Buenos Aires field and started with a… rally by the media to install his figure with a speech that questions both the government and Together for Change. “The scene is still very polarized. It has no place.” said an official spokesman who put the percentage the former transport minister will achieve in the order of 3 or 4 percent of the vote. “Probably to Congress, but alone, not much more. And it will hurt the other side too,” a Buenos Aires leader analyzed, referring to the opposition. In randazzismo they have different expectations and hope to surprise.
Election speculation aside, the government has already decided against any prediction as to whether there will be changes in the cabinet. “If we lose, we change it. If we win, we launch it again. Either way, there will be movement,” a spokesperson said. In addition to the number changes, another decision has been made: that of “Shrinking” the government team to “streamline” its operation. “There are too many ministries, in the second part of the mandate we will need everything to be more dynamic,” the source added, not ruling out the possibility of cabinet meetings starting, something that has not happened since the start of the current one. government and that is what some ministers claim. “Alberto never wanted that, it’s a form of organizing that he learned from Nestor,” they justify in their environment.
Meanwhile, the president resists pressure from La Campora to replace Cafiero. Kirchnerism claims he would be a prime candidate for his illustrious Peronist surname, for his experience in the 2019 campaign and for his communication skills demonstrated during management over the past two years. “Santiago is not going away. Why would Alberto allow it? His departure would only weaken him.” debate close to the coordinating minister. However, they admit that the pressure does not decrease. The formation of the lists will represent the distribution of power in the Frente de Todos, but they will also leave their mark on the exterior and the dynamism of the government for the second tranche, by 2023, and the bids mainly revolve around the economic and the exchange rate. dates and terms of the agreement with the IMF.