Cause Delta variant the infections are back growing and for some regions there is a real risk of returning to soon yellow zone. A step that would not actually entail major variations, since at least the differences between the white and yellow area are now minimal: for example, the curfew has also been eliminated in the yellow area, as well as the obligation to wear masks outdoors. .
However, a return now to the yellow zone, with an increasing trend of infections, is not good news, also because it would cost little to back to the orange area and witness a reset of restrictions.
That is why the Regions ask the control room to criteria for changing colors, looking exclusively at the situation in hospitals which – despite a sudden increase in the number of infected persons – is absolutely under control.
Covid, Delta variant in Italy and in the world
In Italy, the outbreaks caused by the Delta variant are increasing day by day. We are a long way from what is happening in the rest of Europe, especially in countries like Great Britain, Spain and Portugal, but the contagion curve is now growing again and is expected to continue to do so at an exponential rate in the coming weeks.
In the past week we have seen some, albeit minimal, growth in the value of the Rt index, which has fallen from 0.63 a 0.66. Me too’incidence of cases increases, compared to 9 cases per 100,000 inhabitants the week before, we have reached 11 every 100,000.
Data that – if we also look at those relating to hospital admissions and deaths, which meanwhile are falling sharply – do not raise the alarm. However, experience shows that what usually happens in other European countries can also be repeated in Italy.
And that’s why there’s an attitude careful by the government which in these days has absolutely no intention of giving up some important restrictions such as theobligation to wear the mask indoors or at reopening discos for everyone (so without needing the green pass).
Also because in Great Britain, where the Delta variant (predominantly) caused a growth of infections for weeks but without any impact on the health system, is a first growth in hospital admissions data (although Prime Minister Johnson has opted for “free all”) here.
We must be careful – and not alarming – as the Minister of Health, Roberto Speranza, among others, has reiterated in recent days.
Which regions are likely to return to the yellow zone soon?
The transition in the yellow zone of a region from white to yellow takes place, according to the current rules, when: the incidence of infections exceeds the threshold of 50 per 100,000.
It is true that we are well below this threshold today, but if you look at what is happening in other countries, such as Spain, it is expected that soon in almost all parts of the peninsula there will be an exceedance of 50 cases per week per 100,000 inhabitants.
In detail, experts believe that the first regions that may exceed the above threshold are:
- Sicily (incidence at 21);
- Campania (incidence at 19);
- Abruzzo (incidence at 16.6);
- Market (incidence at 15.3).
These are the four regions within due O three weeks could return to the yellow zone, with the risk that by autumn there will also be conditions for a return to the orange and red zone, and thus a recovery of restrictions.
The regions are asking for new criteria for the white, yellow, orange and red areas
A situation that the Regions absolutely want to avoid and that is why an urgent consultation with the Control Room was requested for a new policy change that determine the color change. The Regions’ request is to only look at:incidence in hospitals, evaluating the pressure of infection growth on the health system.
While we wait to understand whether these requests will be accepted, and therefore we will have all of Italy in the white zone for several weeks (as there seems to be no danger to the health system in the short term, at least until September-October), the Ministry of Health, however, he made requests to the regions and asked them to take a cautious stance.
In the document entitled “Delta variant international alarm: increase in Covid-19 cases in several European countries“We read about the need to:
- follow strengthen;
- apply quarantine in time for a suspected variant,
- sequencing the samples,”to ensure vaccination strategies that take into account the potentially lower protection against Delta infections after a single dose”.
For now, nothing else is needed, but the situation is constantly evolving.